As the 2024 Presidential election approaches, American Muslims face a pivotal decision regarding their political allegiance. Historically, this community has been a critical voting bloc, particularly in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. In 2020, 65% of Muslim voters supported Joe Biden, aiding his narrow victories in these battlegrounds. However, shifting geopolitical dynamics, specifically the ongoing war in Gaza, have significantly altered the political landscape for American Muslims, making this election unlike any before it.
The Israel-Palestine conflict has emerged as the paramount issue for American Muslims, uniting a historically diverse community across lines of age, gender, and national origin. The war in Gaza, which has claimed over 40,000 Palestinian lives, most of them civilians, and displaced a vast majority of the population, has become the primary lens through which the community is currently evaluating political candidates. This is a stark departure from previous elections, where domestic issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration dominated political discussions.
President Biden’s response to the Gaza conflict, particularly his unwavering support for Israel, has led to a sharp decline in his popularity among American Muslim voters. A recent report by the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU) revealed that only 12% of Muslim voters intended to support Biden in 2024, a steep drop from the 65% who backed him in 2020. Disillusionment with the Democratic Party has reached unprecedented levels as Biden continues to endorse military aid to Israel despite mounting criticism of Israel’s human rights violations in Gaza. Biden’s failure to push for a more decisive ceasefire has left Muslim voters feeling increasingly alienated.
Kamala Harris is similarly scrutinized for her position on the war in Gaza. While some experts argue that Harris might be able to salvage Muslim voter support by distancing herself from Biden’s Middle East policies, she has, so far, remained staunchly aligned with the administration’s pro-Israel stance. Her reluctance to diverge from Biden’s position on Israel has drawn criticism from American Muslim leaders and voters, especially in key states like Michigan, where the Muslim and Arab-American vote could sway the election.
It should be noted that despite the growing dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party, the American Muslim community is unlikely to vote for Donald Trump in large numbers. While some voters may be frustrated with Biden and Harris’ handling of the Gaza war, Donald Trump’s policy is likely to be even more stridently supportive of Israel. Furthermore, Trump faces significant challenges in winning over this community due to his past policies and rhetoric that have alienated many Muslims. Historically, Trump’s presidency was marked by policies that were seen as overtly hostile to Muslims, including the controversial travel ban that targeted several Muslim-majority countries. This policy, along with his administration’s broader approach to immigration and civil rights, left a lasting negative impression on Muslim voters. Trump also has a track record of inflammatory remarks about Islam, which further deepened the divide between him and the American Muslim community.
Consequently, several prominent Muslim leaders have made a compelling case for American Muslims to consider voting for third-party candidates. In contrast to Harris and Trump, third-party candidates such as Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party and Independent candidate Dr. Cornel West have openly condemned Israel’s military actions and have called for a ceasefire and an end to U.S. military aid to Israel. Stein, for instance, has been particularly vocal in her criticism, labeling the siege on Gaza as genocide and pledging to end the conflict on her first day in office if elected. These stances are in direct alignment with the concerns of many American Muslims, who overwhelmingly favor a reduction in military aid to Israel and an immediate ceasefire, as polling from the ISPU indicates. Several Muslim advocacy groups, like the American Muslim 2024 Election Task Force, including the U.S. Council of Muslim Organizations (USCMO) and Americans for Justice in Palestine (AJP), have urged the community to back candidates who support these positions. Numerous Muslim religious leaders and imams across the country have echoed their calls, viewing third-party candidates as a principled alternative to the two major parties that have failed to address the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
This shift underscores a crucial point: American Muslim voters are increasingly policy-driven rather than partisan. Their dissatisfaction with both major parties stems from a lack of clear political alternatives prioritizing their concerns regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Muslim vote, which once leaned heavily Democratic, is now up for grabs, and candidates wishing to secure their support must advocate for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and a reduction in military aid to Israel.
With no clear political frontrunner who aligns with American Muslims’ views on the Israel-Palestine issue, the 2024 election presents an opportunity for third-party candidates to capture a significant portion of this influential voting bloc. Muslim voters are sending a clear message: They are not bound by party loyalty but are seeking meaningful change in U.S. foreign policy. Candidates who fail to address these concerns risk losing a crucial electorate in key battleground states, potentially altering the election outcome.